Chorlton Central Church

Climate Change is becoming a familiar idea; it features in news broadcasts - you may have signed a petition in support of one of the many NGO's lobbying the Copenhagen Conference. Many nations have agreed - at least in principle - to reduce emissions.

It is easy to forget that before we were concerned about climate change there was a real concern about world fossil fuel reserves. When will the oil run out?

This is still an issue.

For many years the oil companies have been making reassuring noises - "we are discovering new reserves faster than we are using them up". In the meantime, however, consumption has soared, especially as the developing nations switch from bicycles and ox-carts to hatchbacks. Although some economists appear to have difficulty with the concept, a finite resource is one which will eventually be used up. This applies to the major fossil fuels - coal, oil and natural gas. Eventually new discoveries will cease and - some time later - reserves will be used up.

Peak Oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.

Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.

Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred, we are on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly and, as proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, predict a global depression, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market which might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization, potentially leading to large population declines within a short period.

A global social challenge

Whichever prediction is correct, it will affect our lifestyles, and those of nearly everyone else in the world. This will remain true, even if climate change is dealt with succesfully - though that success might delay the onset of the problem by reducing fossil fuel consumption.

What should our response be ?

Do we assume that Peak Oil and Climate Change are forewarnings of the end of the world, and that we do not need to worry because God will save those who trust him ? There are - unfortunately - Christians who would duck their rmoral responsibility by saying exactly this.

Or do we accept that our lifestyles are unsustainable in the long term, accepting the challenge to change our lifestyles, and help others to follow our example ? Many Christians would accept this point of view.

new page 17 Jan 2010